CanMNT Early Preview — First WCQ Window of 2022
The big news heading into the window — Alphonso Davies is not available to play (COVID-related myocarditis). Kudos to Bayern Munich for the care and caution they are taking with him as his health has to come first. Canada will have to play these qualifiers without the best player in the region and it should provide a platform for new heroes to emerge within the team.
John Herdman is going to need strong, consistent performances from Adekugbe, Buchanan, and Millar. Sam Adekugbe has had a good run of form with Süper Lig club Hatayspor and Buchanan looked lively in his first appearance for Club Brugge in the Belgian Pro League. Liam Millar has enjoyed a breakout professional season with FC Basel and has always put in a solid shift when called upon by Herdman. All three will play a role in filling Alphonso’s shoes.
Herdman has opted for flexibility and adaptability with his tactics thus far in qualifying, but after a strong finish to 2021 he should stick with his winning formula. The team’s collective identity shouldn’t change much without Davies though the percentage of attacks down the left flank will surely drop (54% cumulative over the last window & the majority of xG production).
When playing against teams of lesser quality, I suspect Herdman will opt for a 4–4–2 allowing for David and Larin to play off one another up top. However, based on the performance against Mexico, it’s pretty clear that two dynamic runners (Buchanan and Davies in that one) buzzing under and around a center-forward is how the squad best lines up against opponents that want to dominate the ball and commit numbers forward. That’s when Canada will bring out their 3–4–3.
In this window, we could see the following… (keep in mind the squads haven’t even been named yet)
January 27th — at Honduras: 4–4–2
Honduras hasn’t faired well on the road to Qatar and the squad features less quality and venom than the previous generation. Hernán Darío Gómez is still getting to know his team after a coaching change in October and is likely to mix things up with an eye towards ‘26. We should expect a 4–4–2 akin to the Panama side he successfully led through WCQ for 2018.
Gómez did a feature on Coaches’ Voice about leading Panama to the World Cup — it provides some insight into his football ideas. Honduras also played a friendly vs. Columbia on January 16th and faired well.
This throws a bit of a wrench into my Canadian 4–4–2 plans as surely Herdman the tactician won’t pass up the opportunity for numerical superiority in the center of the pitch (2v2). Canada can achieve this by David shifting to play as a secondary striker underneath Larin where he can create an overload centrally in build-up and attack the box from deep positions. Canada could also use an inverted fullback structure to create attacks, which we’ve already seen from Laryea in WCQ (somewhat unsuccessfully). Finally, if Honduras’ defensive structure uses two strikers look for Eustáquio to drop between the CBs to receive the ball. Here are the looks:
Canada needs to leave Honduras with 3 points whilst saving their best football for Hamilton against the US. The lineup features squad stalwarts in Borjan, Laryea, Eustáquio, and Buchanan. Vitoria and Miller get the nod at center-back as the two have formed a solid partnership in the team’s weakest position. Some pundits are concerned at the lack of speed in the partnership, however, Canada collectively does a good job mitigating this risk by (a) the midfield prioritizing frontal pressure on the ball to prevent balls played in behind; and (2) the center-backs anticipate killer passes and drop off early. Vitoria is also Canada’s best threat on set pieces which will be an important weapon through the match. Meanwhile, Kaye is an obvious choice for the Honduras match as his progressive passing and counter-pressing are tailored to games where Canada will dominate the territory battle. And it saves Hutchinson’s poise, technique, and press resistance for January 30th. Finally, Adekugbe and Millar are tasked with playing up the left flank (how about those big shoes).
January 30th — vs USA: 3–4–3
After years of tinkering and then retooling and finally re-tinkering some more, Greg Berhalter finally has the Americans playing some modern and effective football — and there aren’t many question marks about their squad heading into the window.
The US will line up in a 4–3–3 with their fullbacks bursting forward into attack. The team features a number of skilled dribblers that will cause Canada problems, though talented wingers Weah and Reyna may miss out due to injury. Moreover, the American’s strength is their midfield which is youthful, powerful, and full of energy. It is paramount that when defending Canada must prioritize cover and supporting the first defender pressuring the ball (even in wide areas). Herdman’s men cannot allow defenders to be isolated or the dominoes will fall. Also, the midfield must maintain good recovery habits to track late runs into the box from the likes of McKennie and Musah.
That battle: Musah-McKennie vs. Hutchinson-Eustáquio will determine this game.
I have projected that the US will go with the proven MLS-based CB pairing of Zimmerman and M. Robinson, though both Richards and Brooks have been active in the Bundesliga and may get the nod. Upfront Pepi is sure to lead the line and I predict Pulisic and Aaronson will join him. The Americans have three quality fullbacks in Dest (RB/LB), A. Robinson (LB), and Yedlin (RB) and any combination of the three could feature.
Herdman should opt for a similar approach to the Mexico match in Edmonton with the only change to the squad coming through necessity (via Davies’ absence). I’m a bit concerned that Henry’s lack of competitive matches will reignite his propensity for rash challenges, though I’m sure he’ll be up for the war (and the inevitable snow). Johnston has become a staple of Canada’s back 3 and is a lock to start here. Hoilett, who may miss out due to an injury sustained over the weekend, is a personal preference as his craftiness and ability to combine with teammates makes him well-suited to match up against the over-zealous American side for 60 minutes. He’s also comfortable rolling inside and operating between the lines which will allow Laryea to get forward into space. Corbeanu can deputize if he’s unable to go.
Look for Canada to counter-attack through the vacated space of the opposition’s marauding fullbacks. The Americans rely on their CBs to cover space in the wide channels opting for more dramatic backline shifts than one may recommend. M. Robinson is particularly well-suited to this role, but if Canada plans to win this game it’ll take Buchanan burning him a few times in these positions. These backline shifts also leave the weakside CB sliding across in a sub-optimal body shape which can be exploited through early crosses into the path of Larin. Creating battles between Larin and Zimmerman/Robinson on balls played around their backs is a qualitative superiority Herdman needs to make the most of:
The playing conditions will certainly be a factor with less of an edge than we witnessed in Edmonton — the Americans are also used to the climate and playing on plastic. It should be an exciting duel.
February 2nd — at El Salvador: let's see how the first two go…
The projected lineups weren’t particularly tough to put together as the squad selections closely mirror the previous window. As mentioned earlier, I strongly believe Herdman needs to opt for consistency even though a number of players in the squad haven’t played competitive minutes in a while. For example, keeping Cornelius and Kennedy out of the lineup in favour of Miller is a tough selection choice and one I’m sure is keeping Herdman up at night. With three games in a short window (including lots of travel) we should expect plenty of player rotation to keep the squad’s legs and minds sharp. So, for example, leaving David on the bench vs. a tough American side may leave some scratching their heads, but surely it’ll allow him to focus on putting the ball in the back of the net for two tough away fixtures (Honduras, El Salvador).
Hoilett’s role in the program has diminished over the last year, but I believe he brings good composure and experience to the young Canadian attack if healthy. I’d like to see Herdman give him a shot in the most important match of the window against the Americans.
With the state of the world today there is a good chance that Herdman’s selection options change from now until kickoff on the 27th. Nevertheless, Canada finally has the squad depth required to overcome the obstacles ahead and move one step closer to Qatar.
Thanks for tuning in.
cali analysis — @cali_football
